{"id":728,"date":"2022-03-13T18:10:25","date_gmt":"2022-03-13T18:10:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/earthscaping.dk\/?p=728"},"modified":"2022-04-10T15:27:27","modified_gmt":"2022-04-10T13:27:27","slug":"carbon-budgets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/earthscaping.dk\/index.php\/2022\/03\/13\/carbon-budgets\/","title":{"rendered":"Carbon budgets"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"
Photo by Chris LeBoutillier from Pexels\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Global warming is driven by cumulative emissions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In order to understand carbon budgets, we must get one thing straight: global warming is determined by the CO2<\/a> concentration in the atmosphere – not by yearly CO2<\/a> emissions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a bit confusing because much of the data that we see is reported is on a yearly basis. Looking at yearly data is very important for many situations (like your yearly income). For global warming, it is more relevant to look at the cumulative CO2<\/a> emission over time. It is a bit like taking study loan. The loan increases by a certain amount every year. The money you need to pay back is the total amount. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is the same with carbon emissions. The concentration is determined by the total emission over time. See, the CO2<\/a> stays in the atmosphere for a very long time (see our article What are Greenhouse gases<\/a> for the specifics).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The graph below, shows the relationship between the cumulative CO2<\/a> emssions and temperature anomolies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: IPCC<\/a> AR5<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Therefore, we need to be careful when we hear statements like “global CO2<\/a> has been reduced vs last year”. Think about the study loan example: it is great that you spent less money than last year, but whatever money you used this year will still increase your loan. It is the same with CO2<\/a> concentration, even if we reduce the CO2<\/a> emissions compared to last year, we are still increasing the concentration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a global CO2 budget that we cannot exceed<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

As a student, you want to minimize your load. Therefore, you need to work with a budget. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is the same for global warming. In order to stay below the 1,5 degrees Celsius, we need to stay within a specific amount of CO2<\/a> emissions. This is called the carbon budget.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The IPCC<\/a> AR6<\/a> Report of 2021 indicates that the remaining carbon budget to remain within 1.5° of global warming is 400 billion tonnes CO2<\/small>.<\/p>2021 IPCC report: the global carbon budget will run out in 9 years<\/a> by CarbonIndependent.org<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

According to EIA, the global CO2 emission for 2021 was 36,3 billion tonnes<\/a>. This means that the budget is used up after 11 years if no reductions are made. According to the same article, the 2021 emissions increased by 6% and thus reducing the number of years that the budget will last.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image by Ed Hawkins<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This carbon budget uses data from the latest IPCC 6th Assessment Report<\/a>, and assumes a 50% chance of global temperature staying within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CO2 concentration drives global warming<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

CO2<\/a> is the largest driver for climate change. The graph below shows the atmosperic concentration over time. Note the steep increase starting at around 1780.<\/p>\n\n\n\n